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May 20, 2025
Luck plays a huge factor in football. From a goalkeeper error to a fortunate deflection which leads to a goal, a good number of the outcomes are dependent on chance. And who best exemplifies this connection between football and gambling than Ronaldo...
The world of football and gambling intersect in more areas than anyone can imagine. Besides the obvious fact that football is one of the foremost betting markets for gamblers in this age, there’s also the prevalent role of luck in both activities. The Plinko online game is one of the best examples of how lucky a player can get with just a ball drop. Nevertheless, whenever Ronaldo is on the pitch we also know that his talent tends to overcome luck...
Cristiano Ronaldo - 15 times he shocked the world
Ronaldo holds the record for the highest official goals scored in the history of the sport. Famously known as “Mr. Champions League” Cristiano has the highest goals and assists in the tournament. But that’s not all he’s known for.
The footballing legend has also mastered the art of producing clutch moments against all odds. Whether it’s scoring momentous goals to earn the victory, rescue a point or spur a comeback, the 40-year-old striker is known to deliver even when the probability is low. In fact, conversations around his legacy now include whether we might witness an unprecedented father-son duo on the pitch in a future World Cup, showing how the Ronaldo narrative continues to evolve in extraordinary ways.
It’s not uncommon to see comparisons between a Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a clutch moment to the Plinko game. Plinko is a casino game that is hinged on randomness and probability, with the odds of winning being very tight. Despite the predictable patterns in the game, it’s not every time you drop a ball to the same outcome.
Seeing these immense similarities between both phenomena, it’s worth asking, is Ronaldo luckier on the pitch than a player is at the casino table?
Every now and then, the footballing world presents match-ups between some of the strongest teams and underdogs. However, in a surprising turn of events, the relatively weak team emerges winners due to some sheer piece of advantage. These experiences go to show how much of a prominent factor luck is in football, even when players of Ronaldo's caliber are involved...
Interestingly, there are many examples of what counts as a lucky moment in football. Some popular instances include a deflection on a shot which sends the ball towards goal while the goalkeeper heads in another direction. Keeper errors, ball bounce or weather conditions are other examples of providence at play in the sport.
There’s been a debate about whether controversial decisions fall under the subject of discussion. But there’s no doubt that some referee calls, such as a harsh penalty, free kick or sending off, can give one team an advantage over another.
Outside of the field of play, luck can manifest in several ways. For instance, the star player of the opposition team may be injured or pick up a red card, making him ineligible to play and affecting the balance.
That said, let’s take a look at some times that Ronaldo has scored a lucky goal.
According to Cristiano Ronaldo stats, the striker averages 0.73 goals per game and scores or assists every 87.6 minutes. In just about 1277 matches, the Portuguese player has scored a whopping 934 goals. But how many of that massive number is down to sheer luck or have come at a clutch moment?
Here’s a list of the top ones.
• Goalkeeper error in the World Cup 2018 match between Portugal and Spain where De Gea parried the ball into his own net after a shot from Ronaldo.
• Ronaldo’s attempt took a deflection off a defender and wrong-footed the goalkeeper in a Manchester United vs. West Ham game in 2008.
• In a UCL knockout game involving Real Madrid and Schalke back in 2015, Ronaldo got a lucky tap-in after the keeper spilled a shot right to his legs.
• Ronaldo came up clutch in a 2013 World Cup Playoff between Portugal and Sweden, scoring a hat-trick in the second leg to secure his country’s place at the 2014 mundial.
• Scoring a rather-high pressure penalty in the 86th minute, Ronaldo clinched a hat-trick and overturned a 2-0 first leg deficit when Juventus met Atletico Madrid in the 2019 UCL.
• Another first-leg deficit was overturned in a UCL quarter final game between Real Madrid and Wolfsburg after Ronaldo’s third goal came via a freekick that split through the wall.
Not too many of Ronaldo’s goals can be judged lucky. However, we do know that the prolific goalscorer is renowned to have netted about 178 times between the 76th and 90th minute.
So, if you’re considering clutch goals as part of his lucky moment, then that contributes to about 19% of his total goals.
Albeit, goals due to the errors of others, external help, referee decisions only contribute to about 5% of Ronaldo’s tally. Moreover, with Cristiano, these goals are more than just providence or coincidence, considering that the star has proven himself over and over. It all comes down to his excellent positioning, ability to sight chances and get into tight spaces.
Despite being originally popularised by TV game shows like “The Price is Right” and “The Wall” the game has now become more predominant in online casinos. In Plinko casino game, a disc or ball is dropped from the top of a vertical, rectangular board. As the ball falls, it bounces left and right off a series of pegs arranged in a triangular grid, thereby randomizing each drop.
Right at the bottom of the board are several slots, marked with different multiplier prizes. Ultimately, the idea of Plinko gambling is that players wager a specific amount and then take a shot at the disc to see which of the multipliers they would win. In most cases, the farther the ball lands from the center of the board, the higher the potential multiplier to be won.
While the pattern in a Plinko game online is fixed, where the disc eventually drops is determined by gravity and the randomness of the pegs. Besides, the possibility of the ball dropping to the leftmost or rightmost part of the board is lower, making the higher multiplier values more difficult to clinch.
::: Return-to-Player (RTP), Volatility and Odds
The RTP at a Plinko casino is the theoretical percentage of the amount that players wager that the game pays back. On the other hand, volatility refers to the size of wins relative to the frequency of plays. Volatility could either be low, medium or high. With low volatility, you’ll get small-sized yet frequent wins while higher volatility gives you very rare but big multipliers.
Actual probabilities in the game typically vary across developers and casinos. However, you can always expect big multipliers to have very low odds, while small multipliers carry a higher likelihood. On average, the probability of landing 1x or 2x is about 35 to 40% while the probability of a 100x multiplier is an estimated 0.5%.
Now that we know all about how luck interplays in football and the game of luck, up next is a comparison of the odds in both games. As we’ve done since the start of the article, we’ll rely on Cristiano Ronaldo stats in representation of football.
That said, below are some important odds summarising Ronaldo’s career.
Outcome |
Odds (Decimal - Fractional - Moneyline) |
||
⚽ Ronaldo scoring a goal in a match |
1.37 |
4/11 |
-270 |
⚽ Ronaldo making an assist in a match |
5.21 |
21/5 |
+421 |
⚽ Ronaldo scoring a header |
8.26 |
41/5 |
+726 |
⚽ Ronaldo scoring with his weak foot |
10.0 |
9/1 |
+900 |
⚽ Ronaldo making a goal contribution (goal or assist) |
1.08 |
1/12 |
-1233 |
As for odds of landing low or high multipliers on a game with 16 rows, here’s a rundown of the odds.
Outcome |
Odds (Decimal - Fractional - Moneyline) |
||
🎰 Ball landing on 1x multiplier |
5.0 |
4/1 |
+400 |
🎰 Ball landing on 2x multiplier |
10.0 |
9/1 |
+400 |
🎰 Ball landing on 10x multiplier |
100.0 |
99/1 |
+9900 |
🎰 Ball landing on 100x multiplier |
1000.0 |
999/1 |
+99,900 |
🎰 Ball landing on 0.5x multiplier |
3.33 |
7/3 |
+233 |
Now, let’s compare some seemingly impossible odds in the game to some very unlikely odds for Ronaldo in football to see who’s luckier.
Outcome |
Odds (Decimal - Fractional - Moneyline) |
||
⚽ Ronaldo scoring a goal in El Clásico |
2.50 |
3/2 |
+150 |
🎰 Ball landing on 1000x multiplier |
10,000.0 |
9999/1 |
+99,900 |
⚽ Ronaldo scoring from a free kick |
21.83 |
21/1 |
+2098 |
🎰 Getting 10 consecutive 2x multipliers |
10^9 |
9^9/1 |
+9^9 |
⚽ Ronaldo scoring a hat-trick |
19.05 |
18/1 |
+1805 |
🎰 Ball drop to a 0.2x multiplier |
2.57 |
157/100 |
+157 |
⚽ Ronaldo scoring a 90th minute goal |
40.0 |
39/1 |
+3900 |
🎰 Hitting a 100x multiplier after two drops |
500.25 |
499/1 |
+49925 |
Quite interesting to say the least!
Comparing the odds that one of the greatest footballers ever will score an outrageous goal to the random landing of a Plinko ball could never have been more different. While there is some element of luck involved in Cristiano scoring from a defensive error or an accidental penalty, those outcomes are the result of some significant effort.
For someone who has scored over 900 goals in a career that has spanned more than 20 years, his goals are a product of elite positioning, relentless training and instinct gained by experience. On the flip side, the game mentioned here is a game of pure chance. The path a disc follows depends on gravity and probability distribution. No amount of skill or experience can change the outcome.
Moreover, casinos often play on the illusion of control. They let you tweak settings, choose bet sizes or even vary volatility levels and rows to make it seem like you can change the outcome. In the end, the random outcomes show that you don’t have even the slightest of control. But for Cristiano, the case is different. He embodies genuine control and this is evident by how he does his goalscoring magic game after game, even at the age of 40.
Cristiano Ronaldo next game for Al Nassr is on May 21, against Al Khaleej, for the Saudi Super League. You can watch Al Nassr vs Al Khaleej, Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad, PSG vs Reims, Tottenham vs Manchester United, Manchester City vs Bournemouth and Crystal Palace vs Wolverhampton, all matches provided from our live streaming game pages.
Al Nassr next game:
Al Nassr vs Al Khalkeej kick-off time (21-05-2025):
Beijing (China) | UTC/GMT+7: 01:10
India (New Delhi) | UTC/GMT+4.30: 21:40
Saudi Arabia (Riyadh) | UTC/GMT+2: 19:10
Spain (Madrid) | UTC/GMT+1: 18:10
Portugal and England (Lisbon/London) | UTC/GMT+0: 17:10
Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) | UTC/GMT-3: 14:10
New York (United States) | UTC/GMT-4: 13:10
Los Angeles (United States) | UTC/GMT-7: 10:10
Sources: ronaldo7.net / yahoo.com / washingtonpost.com
